In October, US Had Strongest Manufacturing Growth in 2 Years
It was the US' best month for factory activity since September 2018.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 15 reported growth in October, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The two industries reporting contraction in October are: Textile Mills; and Printing & Related Support Activities.
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Tariffs Are Benefiting US Manufacturing
And according to the Reshoring Index we’ve produced at the Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA), it's the first time in this century that U.S. manufacturers have been able to win back share from importers in the later stage of an economic recovery.
In the real world, what the U.S. has seen is a brief surge in prices in the first few months after a tariff is announced—when hoarding and rush purchasing drive up prices. But that quickly subsides, and prices fall back to normal levels. A good example are steel prices, which today are lower than they were five years ago.
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There are some growing pains associated with the changes to the supply chain on all sorts of things. I fear all the money printing ($6T "Stimulous" bs) is causing hyper-inflation much like the Germans had in the late 20s. A 2x4 spruce framing lumber is $7.50 each here. Was $2.39 a year ago. Plywood, OSB, etc, are all insane expensive. I"m sure it'll all shake out in the end, but expect that $20 in your pocket to be a $5 when it's all done.
Those lumber prices are the same up here in Canada, they were double what they normally were about a month ago, and are now slowly dropping again. That was due to many of the mills in the west and northern Canada shutting down due to Covid, causing a shortage. They're slowly starting to catch up again now.
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Unfortunately, the commie-cough thing isn't over yet. Politicians are pushing it to the extreme, even getting worse now than before. Some countries are back under even more draconian lockdown now than before, and there's no sign of it letting up.
The lumber you are buying is likely now, and always was, processed in the US. More likely what you are seeing is the impact of Covid on supply chain. If you can't open a mill to process, or transfer product, or stock it upon arrival or sell it to a customer, goods become crazy expensive.BugHunter wrote:There are some growing pains associated with the changes to the supply chain on all sorts of things. I fear all the money printing ($6T "Stimulous" bs) is causing hyper-inflation much like the Germans had in the late 20s. A 2x4 spruce framing lumber is $7.50 each here. Was $2.39 a year ago. Plywood, OSB, etc, are all insane expensive. I"m sure it'll all shake out in the end, but expect that $20 in your pocket to be a $5 when it's all done.
And of course Regulations changes materially impact products like lumber heavily. Steel prices jumped then dropped, and now are through the roof again based upon mills and foundries being closed. Until supply recovers, the demand will out-strip stock and prices will remain high.